A multistate approach for estimating the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus by using HIV and AIDS French surveillance data

Sommen, Alioum and Commenges have a new paper in Statistics in Medicine. This applies the penalized likelihood approach to multi-state models, used extensively by the INSERM group, to the area of back-calculation for estimating HIV incidence. The penalization parameters are chosen by minimizing an approximate cross-validation score.