About Earthquake Forecasting by Markov Renewal Processes

There is a new paper in Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability by Garavaglia and Pavani. This concerns the forecasting of earthquakes. They analyse data on severe earthquakes in Turkey during the 20th century. Two approaches were considered. Firstly a two-state semi-Markov model is proposed to model the process. The states represent the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 - 6.3 and greater than 6.3 respectively. However, the probability that the next earthquake is of magnitude greater than 6.3 is seen to not depend on the magnitude of the last earthquake. Hence, instead a model based only on the inter-event times is considered using an exponential-Weibull mixture distribution.

Conferences

Below is a list of multi-state modelling related talks at forthcoming conferences:

Joint Statistical Meetings 2009:
Somnath Datta and Ling Lan
Nonparametric Inference in Multistate Models with Interval-Censored Data

Richard Cook
Multistate Analysis of Bivariate Interval-Censored Failure Time Data

Hans C. van Houwelingen and Hein Putter
Dynamic Predicting by Landmarking as an Alternative for Multistate Modeling: An Application to Acute Lymphoid Leukemia Data

Liou Xu, David Snowdon and Richard J. Kryscio
A Markov Transition Model to Dementia with Death as a Competing Event

Wei-Ting Hwang, Neha Vapiwala and Lawrence J. Solin
A Stayer-Mover Mixture Markov Model for Disease Transitions in Early-Staged Breast Cancer Treated with Breast-Conserving Therapy (BCT)

Halina Frydman and Michael Szarek
Estimation of Overall Survival in an Illness-Death Model with Application to the Vertical Transmission of HIV-1

ISCB 30:

Talks:

Michael Lauseker, Jörg Hasford and Andreas Hochhaus
Prediction In Multi-State Models And Its Application In Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia     

Martin Wolkewitz, Arthur Allignol, Martin Schumacher and Jan Beyersmann
Understanding And Avoiding Survival Bias: An Application Of Multistate Models In A Cohort Of Oscar Nominees

Thomas Kneib
Semiparametric Multi-State Models

Giuliana Cortese and Per Kragh Andersen
Internal Time-Dependent Covariates In Competing Risks Models For Bone Marrow Transplant Studies 

Per Kragh Andersen, Kajsa Kvist and Lars Kessing
Effect Of Event-Dependent Sampling Of Recurrent Events.     

Michael Schemper and Alexandra Kaider
Quantifying The Correlation Of Bivariate Survival Times By Means Of A Novel Self-Consistency Approach     

Ronald Geskus, Nicolas Poulin, Hilton Whittle and Maarten Schim van der Loeff
A Markov Cure Model To Compare Progression Of HIV-1 And HIV-2 Infection

Posters:
Qing Wang, Linda Sharples and Nikolaos Demiris
Multi-State Models For The Analysis Of Lung Transplant Data     

Liesbeth de Wreede, Marta Fiocco and Hein Putter
The Analysis Of Multi-State Models By Means Of The Mstate Package     

ISI, Durban:
Invited Paper meeting:
Inference and Prediction in Competing Risks and Multi-State Models
Organiser: Hein Putter
Participants: Martin Schumacher, Bendix Carstensen, Ørnulf Borgan.